Despite media eulogies for her campaign, Clinton was cheery and confident Wednesday.  Her course is unchanged—fight to seat the barred Florida and Michigan delegates, woo blue-color workers, and full sail forward.

No doubt, she’s “in it to win it” in part for the money.  Like a CEO paid in company stocks, Clinton’s personal finances depend on success.  She’s loaned the campaign over $11 million—and there’s talk of more.  This must undermine her viability in the eyes of political kingmakers (such as 527s), which view fundraising ability as a proxy for political support.

There’s mischief afoot: the Obama campaign says firebrand conservative Rush Limbaugh had a hand in the closeness of the Indiana race (which Clinton won by only 14,000 votes).  Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos” encourages Republican voters to cross over and vote for Clinton in Democratic primaries, to ensure a long and bloody nomination battle.

Writes the Washington Post:

Guess there WERE surprises on the Republican side.  In Indiana, 22% of Republicans went for the other guy—Huckabee, Paul, and Romney, in that order.  In North Carolina, it was 26%.  That’s a lot of voters casting a ballot against destiny, especially for a party known for its loyalty to the anointed.

Bleary-eyed Americans woke to see the morning shows coalesce around Obama.  After a colossal 14% win by Obama in North Carolina (and a razor-thin 2% win by Clinton in Indiana), NBC asks “Is it Over?” and former Clinton aide George Stephanopoulos tells “Good Morning America” that superdelegates will start announcing in twos and threes for Obama. 

But last night Clinton was all smiles and determination: “full speed to the White House!”  The parallels seem to grow between Clinton and Eight Belles, the horse she backed in the Kentucky Derby…the only filly in the race, Eight Belles ran her heart out, broke both ankles, and finished second.  The winner was Big Brown. 

Obama has won the North Carolina primary (VERY) decisively—by 12%, exceeding expectations by 5%. 

Indiana remains too close to call: Clinton is ahead by 2%, but the votes haven’t been counted from Lake County, which is in western Indiana and the Chicago media market (meaning Obama is a hometown name).  Statewide projections had Clinton ahead in by 7%. 

Clinton has claimed the Indiana win, announcing tonight that her campaign has “broken the tie.”  Who knows what that means.  Presumably she is using alternative-universe math that includes verboten delegates from Michigan and Florida. 

Whatever the Indiana outcome, a disappointing night for Clinton.  

Seis de mayo is here!  Voting booths open in less than six hours in Indiana, where 72 delegates are up for grabs, and North Carolina, which will offer up 115.  (Seems voters in both states are flattered by the national attention—this being the first competitive primary in a generation.)

Thus ends a week and a half of nasty back-and-forthing.  Clinton and Obama swapped negative ads on guns and gas taxes, while competing for blue-collar bona fides (I award the victory to Clinton, for knocking back beer after cheap beer with a convincingly genuine smile).  Now let's see if she's rewarded in votes…

Rumors on the veepstakes...gossip has it that the frontrunner for McCain's running mate is Louisiana Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal, who is sharp, photogenic, reeeaally young, and able to neutralize the Democrats' we're-not-balding-white-men appeal.  Go McCain-Jindal!

The dust is settled from Tuesday’s primary in Pennsylvania.  Senator Clinton won by enough to keep fighting, but by too little to erode Obama’s lead in pledged delegates.

With mathematical near-certainty, Clinton will end the primary season behind.  But looks like she's following the campaign advice of one folksy Baptist preacher: “I didn't major in math, I majored in miracles.”

Speaking of miracles, the metallic clang clang clang you hear now is money pouring into Clinton’s cashbox.  (In our virtually era, admittedly, it's a click click click.)  Emboldened by her Pennsylvania win, donors (mostly new) are offering a lifeline of cash—totaling $10 million on Wednesday alone.  This is essential because financially speaking, Clinton has been running on fumes—she was $10 million in debt going into April, and has left a trail of unpaid and frustrated vendors in primary states.

The influx of money from new donors is especially good news.  An underreported handicap in the Clinton campaign is that many of her donors wrote checks that maxed out the legal amount they could donate ($2,300).  Obama’s supporters, in contrast, donate in $25-$100 chunks.  This means his supporters are an open ATM - offering continual cash withdrawals - while hers are a shuttered bank.  Until Tuesday.

Will Clinton's cash influx and media bump break Obama's stride towards the May 6th primaries in North Carolina and Indiana?  I defer to Wonkette:

Barack Obama says "Huh Pennsylvania Hillary Clinton what?" and keeps talking about John McCain, who is also apparently running for President. 

Earlier this year, marketing researchers discovered something unusual about Valentine's Day.  Every February, would-be Romeos fall into two groups.  The first group is men who plan and purchase a gift a head of time.  They're out to wow their object of desire, and respond best to advertisements that promise fireworks. 

The second group of men procrastinate.  As February 14^th approaches—tic toc—they respond best to advertisements about avoiding fights, not kindling sparks. 

Confronting a deadline, consumers are more moved by negative arguments (what they could lose) than positive ones (what they can win).  This goes a long way in explaining Pennsylvania voters—8 percent of whom hadn't picked a candidate two days ago.  That's when Clinton released her master of disaster ad - a montage of doom from Katrina to bin Laden. 

Time pressure + fear = risk aversion.  Q.E.D., last-minute persuadables will pull the lever for the establishment candidate.  The fair senator from New York is one smart lady. 

Dog bites man—Clinton wins Pennsylvania.  Preliminary results (85% of voting precincts reporting) are Clinton 55%, Obama 45%. 

Will a 10% lead silence the chattering that she should bow out?   Looks like yes.  The Grey Lady says it with authority: Clinton Wins Primary, Keeping Bid Alive.

We’re in for a long hot summer.

Barring an act of providence—usually silent on voting day, presumably out of respect for the democratic process—Senator Clinton will win Tuesday's primary race in Pennsylvania. 

But for the dance to go on, Clinton must not only win, but win big.  By the end of the primary season, neither she nor Obama will have bagged enough elected delegates for a conclusive victory.  She can only win if she persuades the superdelegates that she's more electable in the general election than the handsome upstart from Illinois. 

Clinton's electability argument is based on her track record of beating Obama in big states (must-wins in the general election) and in states dominated by "Reagan Democrats"—working-class whites who swing right for their values, but left for their wallets.  Pennsylvania—manufacturing country, hard-hit by the transition to a service economy—is both. 

So the race is Clinton's to lose.  And she recognizes that a numerical win is not enough.  As her husband learned in the 1992 New Hampshire primary, the media awards the "win" not to those who beat opponents, but to those who beat expectations.  If Obama overturns media expectations and loses only by a narrow margin, he remains the on-the-rise heir apparent. 

So in these final hours, the battle is over expectations.  Obama sets the bar to an achievable height, saying he will consider the day a success if he keeps Clinton's lead to the single digits.  Clinton's spokesman raises it higher, claiming if the well-funded Obama can't win Pennsylvania, it shows "serious problems winning the large states and closing the deal with voters."  Whose expectations will carry the day?  Today will tell.  Clinton will win the voting game.  What's up for grabs—and what her continued candidacy depends on—is whether she'll win the perception game.