I'll be out of town for the next two weeks.  The Note offers a full daily dose of politics.  Or try the The Page for lighter fare...both brainchilds of the indispensible Mark Halperin. 

Clinton wins Kentucky by 35 points, Obama wins Oregon by 16 (but votes are still being counted).  A lopsided day, but one that won’t significantly affect the final game score.

The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder writes about the dark undertone of the Kentucky win: 

Of the 21 percent of Kentucky voters who said that race was a factor in their decision, about 90% chose Hillary Clinton.  In other words, more than 50,000 Kentucky Democrats are willing to admit that the pigment of Obama's skin was a reason they decided not to vote for him.

Primary day dawns in a few hours on Oregon and Kentucky.  You can bet safe money that Obama walks away with Oregon, and Clinton with Kentucky.  Polling says Obama’s win will be solid (about 4 points), and Clinton’s overwhelming (about 25).  NPR has a helpful primer on why, reminding us that demographics is destiny. 

The projected Kentucky landslide won’t change anything, but I am thinking it sheds light on why Clinton is still in the race.  For a week, Obama and McCain (and his presidential wingman) have been aiming directly at each other—treating Clinton as beneath their notice, an also-ran, a what-if that wasn't.

But Clinton soldiers on. Why the doggedness?  Maybe she made promises to supporters/fundraisers to stay the course.  Or she might be trying to run up her vote tally (this is where Kentucky comes in) to strengthen her negotiating hand. 

Meg Greenfield once wrote that we assume our public figures are calculating automatons, choosing every move for political advantage.  We overlook that within the persona is the person.  My hunch is Clinton genuinely sees Obama as unfit to lead, and, maybe in a reality skewed by groupthink, sees a path to success. 

Or maybe Clintons just don’t run up the white flag.  As Chris Matthews told top Clinton aide Howard Wolfson last week, Clinton is “like one of those Japanese soldiers that‘s still fighting in 1953.”

Republicans have lost their third straight special election for a Congressional seat, in heavily Republican-leaning districts.  In Mississippi, the Republican candidate, Greg Davis, ran TV ads stressing that his Democratic opponent, Travis Childers, was endorsed by Barack Obama—as if Obama’s blessing transmitted a liberal contagion.  It didn’t work—Childers won.

None other than the godfather of Republican campaign strategy, Karl Rove, muses why:

The string of defeats should cure Republicans of the habit of simply shouting "liberal! liberal! liberal!" in hopes of winning an election.  They need to press a reform agenda full of sharp contrasts with the Democrats.

He asks,

Why is it tough sledding for Republicans?  Public revulsion at GOP scandals was a large factor in the party's 2006 congressional defeat.  Some brand damage remains, as does the downward pull of the president's approval ratings.  But the principal elements are the Iraq war and a struggling economy.

Meaning that despite the messiness of the Democratic primary, the party remains are the odds-on favorite for November. 

In addition to the war and the economy, there’s the weight of political history: Americans almost always elect the “out party” after a two-term presidency, especially if the outgoing president has high disapproval ratings, like Bush does.

In the ledger of Republican advantages are values issues—like yesterday’s decision by the California Supreme Court to overturn the state's gay marriage ban.  For Republicans, a surprises like this is Christmas in May.

Former presidential hopeful John Edwards endorses Obama at a Grand Rapids, Michigan event:

“The reason I am here tonight is that Democratic voters in America have made their choice and so have I.  There is one man who knows in his heart that it is time to tear down that wall and make one America, Barack Obama.”

 

"Join me in sending Barack Obama to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue..."

Edwards—son of a mill worker, with a Carolina drawl—lends big credibility with the white working class.  I am thinking the announcement was timed to short-circuit Clinton’s media boost after her West Virginia win, and to model the path of party unity for hand-wringing superdelegates.

More turncoat tales—on Wednesday Obama also won the endorsement of the NARAL Pro-Choice America, which has supported Clinton throughout her career. 

(It's funny to see two big endorsements on the same day—campaigns pace them out to amplify their impact in news coverage.  Most likely the Obama camp doubled up the announcements to overshadow the NARAL endorsement.  Winning over the pro-choice establishment is a necessary gate in the primary process, but NARAL's support will alienate the values voters Obama is trying so hard to court.) 

The pro-choice movement is a heavyweight in Democratic politics, both for its grassroots infrastructure and its fundraising power.  It now stands divided: NARAL’s declaration is being denounced by EMILY’s List, the twin leader of the movement (it's America's largest political action committee) and

and a longtime fundraiser for Clinton.  According to the AP:

EMILY's List founder Ellen Malcolm, a prominent Clinton backer, said it was "tremendously disrespectful" for NARAL "to not give her the courtesy to finish … the primary process" before backing Obama.

Clinton trounces Obama in West Virigina!

I mean, Clinton trounces Obama in West Virginia.

There are no exclamation points in the news, because her win in yesterday's primary (by a 2:1 margin) is no surprise. 

As The Politico's Roger Simon writes:

If a tree falls in the forest when everybody expects it to fall, does it make a sound?

 

Yes, says Hillary Clinton. It makes a deafening roar, says Hillary Clinton.

 

SHE WON THE WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY BY A KAZILLION PERCENTAGE POINTS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THAT, SHE SAYS, HAS TO MEAN SOMETHING!

 

Except the press doesn’t think so. The press is unimpressed. This may be the first time in election history in which the press has withdrawn from a race before the candidate.

 

As John Harwood of the New York Times and CNBC said on MSNBC Tuesday several hours before the polls closed, “The headline tomorrow will be: ‘Hillary Clinton Wins Big in West Virginia; Democratic Party Yawns.’”

The win gives a little oomph to Clinton and her surrogates, who are on the road (and airways) stressing their determination to stay the course.  In her victory speech, Clinton is resolution in human form: “I am more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had a chance to make their voices heard.”

The margins are what they are because the West Virginia demographic is Clinton's sweet spot: voters who are white, lower-income, lesser-educated, socially conservative, and a little uncomfortable with their non-white compatriots. 

It's unsettling that Clinton has made a coalition of the lesser-educated and racially disgruntled.  Considered in light of her race gaffe last week - claiming her strength was "hardworking Americans, white Americans" - it is hard to feel that she's not making political hay out of American ignorance. 

Despite media eulogies for her campaign, Clinton was cheery and confident Wednesday.  Her course is unchanged—fight to seat the barred Florida and Michigan delegates, woo blue-color workers, and full sail forward.

No doubt, she’s “in it to win it” in part for the money.  Like a CEO paid in company stocks, Clinton’s personal finances depend on success.  She’s loaned the campaign over $11 million—and there’s talk of more.  This must undermine her viability in the eyes of political kingmakers (such as 527s), which view fundraising ability as a proxy for political support.

There’s mischief afoot: the Obama campaign says firebrand conservative Rush Limbaugh had a hand in the closeness of the Indiana race (which Clinton won by only 14,000 votes).  Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos” encourages Republican voters to cross over and vote for Clinton in Democratic primaries, to ensure a long and bloody nomination battle.

Writes the Washington Post:

Limbaugh crowed about the success of his ploy all day Tuesday, featuring on-air testimonials from voters in Indiana and North Carolina who recounted their illicit pleasure in casting a vote for Clinton. "Some of the people show up and they ask for a Democrat ballot, and the poll worker says, 'Why, what are you going to do?' He says, 'Operation Chaos,' and they just laugh," Limbaugh said Tuesday.

Guess there WERE surprises on the Republican side.  In Indiana, 22% of Republicans went for the other guy—Huckabee, Paul, and Romney, in that order.  In North Carolina, it was 26%.  That’s a lot of voters casting a ballot against destiny, especially for a party known for its loyalty to the anointed.

Bleary-eyed Americans woke to see the morning shows coalesce around Obama.  After a colossal 14% win by Obama in North Carolina (and a razor-thin 2% win by Clinton in Indiana), NBC asks “Is it Over?” and former Clinton aide George Stephanopoulos tells “Good Morning America” that superdelegates will start announcing in twos and threes for Obama. 

But last night Clinton was all smiles and determination: “full speed to the White House!”  The parallels seem to grow between Clinton and Eight Belles, the horse she backed in the Kentucky Derby…the only filly in the race, Eight Belles ran her heart out, broke both ankles, and finished second.  The winner was Big Brown.  

Obama has won the North Carolina primary (VERY) decisively—by 12%, exceeding expectations by 5%. 

Indiana remains too close to call: Clinton is ahead by 2%, but the votes haven’t been counted from Lake County, which is in western Indiana and the Chicago media market (meaning Obama is a hometown name).  Statewide projections had Clinton ahead in by 7%. 

Clinton has claimed the Indiana win, announcing tonight that her campaign has “broken the tie.”  Who knows what that means.  Presumably she is using alternative-universe math that includes verboten delegates from Michigan and Florida. 

Whatever the Indiana outcome, a disappointing night for Clinton.  

Seis de mayo is here!  Voting booths open in less than six hours in Indiana, where 72 delegates are up for grabs, and North Carolina, which will offer up 115.  (Seems voters in both states are flattered by the national attention—this being the first competitive primary in a generation.)

Thus ends a week and a half of nasty back-and-forthing.  Clinton and Obama swapped negative ads on guns and gas taxes, while competing for blue-collar bona fides (I award the victory to Clinton, for knocking back beer after cheap beer with a convincingly genuine smile).  Now let's see if she's rewarded in votes…

Rumors on the veepstakes...gossip has it that the frontrunner for McCain's running mate is Louisiana Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal, who is sharp, photogenic, reeeaally young, and able to neutralize the Democrats' we're-not-balding-white-men appeal.  Go McCain-Jindal!