Republicans have lost their third straight special election for a Congressional seat, in heavily Republican-leaning districts.  In Mississippi, the Republican candidate, Greg Davis, ran TV ads stressing that his Democratic opponent, Travis Childers, was endorsed by Barack Obama—as if Obama’s blessing transmitted a liberal contagion.  It didn’t work—Childers won.

None other than the godfather of Republican campaign strategy, Karl Rove, muses why:

The string of defeats should cure Republicans of the habit of simply shouting "liberal! liberal! liberal!" in hopes of winning an election.  They need to press a reform agenda full of sharp contrasts with the Democrats.

He asks,

Why is it tough sledding for Republicans?  Public revulsion at GOP scandals was a large factor in the party's 2006 congressional defeat.  Some brand damage remains, as does the downward pull of the president's approval ratings.  But the principal elements are the Iraq war and a struggling economy.

Meaning that despite the messiness of the Democratic primary, the party remains are the odds-on favorite for November. 

In addition to the war and the economy, there’s the weight of political history: Americans almost always elect the “out party” after a two-term presidency, especially if the outgoing president has high disapproval ratings, like Bush does.

In the ledger of Republican advantages are values issues—like yesterday’s decision by the California Supreme Court to overturn the state's gay marriage ban.  For Republicans, a surprises like this is Christmas in May.